Log-Return Difference Between IWM and SPY Reaching High
Earlier in June, I had discussed the prevalence of different frequencies in the difference between the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. One of these frequencies is currently reaching a peak, with Friday putting IWM 0.006 above SPY for daily log-return. Since May of 2000, the average difference between IWM and SPY has been marginally positive at 0.00027, with a standard deviation of 0.0068.
As you can see, as the difference reaches this mean plus one standard deviation, the following days see a trend reversal. I would consider shorting the Russell 2000 tracker IWM and going long on the S&P 500 tracker SPY to make risk-free profit on this trend.
- Michael J Bommarito II's blog
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