News of a Russian deal with former USSR satellite states Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan hit the wire early Saturday morning, and the implications of this agreement are obvious for a number of funds.  Notable among these is the brand new Market Vectors Russia, which follows the DAX Global Russia Index, which has about 13% in OAO Gazprom, the Russian state-owned oil company that will likely see the most benefit from this move.  TRF likewise has a 3.4% Gazprom weight, and although CEE is closed, it is another Central Europe/Russia fund to watch.

    The number of those who stand to lose is perhaps far greater.  There has long been Western interest in these same fields, and the new Russian agreement will no doubt signal future pressure and conflict of interest between the dominant, proximal Russia and the Corporate West.  Here is a list of corporations operating in Turkmenistan, including Haliburton and Mobil.  The list is even bigger in Kazakhstan, including Chevron, Conoco Phillips, and Haliburton  (no superior Potassium Borat jokes here). 

    These US oil companies are obviously heavy weights in a number of ETFs, and if you're looking to profit off of their potential loss, here are those ETFs with at least one of the above in their top 10 holdings:

• IEZ (9%)
• OIH (10%)
• PXJ (5%)
• VDE (22%)
• XLE (25%)
• IYE (20%)
• IGE (14%)
• PRFE (30%)

    Though PRFE is obviously the most vulnerable by weight, here are current values for these funds that indicate that PXJ, OIH, and IEZ are the three that have the furthest to fall to their moving average supports.  As the last column indicates, PXJ and OIH seem to have increasing dollar liquidity lately, whereas IEZ is losing dollar interest and seems to be most in need of a correction given Bollinger Bands.  Depending on crude directions Monday morning and any other news, these could all be in play, though as with any other oil trade of this nature, both caution and speed are required.